Toluca vs Leon

03 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

Toluca

Leon

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.8% DRAW 25.6% AWAY 23.6%

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The current probability profile does not show a meaningful Home or Away divergence from market expectations. The model profile is based on 2,971 historically comparable matches.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Toluca

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Toluca Leon

Shots 18.0 · On target 4.8 Shots 14.3 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Toluca Leon

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 18.3 · On target allowed 5.5

Toluca has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Toluca Leon

The combined recent performance profile favours Toluca.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Toluca ↓ -0.07 (-3.6%)

Leon ↑ +0.30 (+8.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.