NK Uskok vs HNK Gorica

09 Sep 2026 · 16:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.2 pp

NK Uskok

HNK Gorica

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 15.7% DRAW 19.1% AWAY 65.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 11.5% 8.00 DRAW 17.7% 5.20 AWAY 70.8% 1.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates NK Uskok clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 15.7% win probability, compared with 11.5% implied by the market. The 4.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

NK Uskok has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

NK Uskok HNK Gorica

Shots 13.0 · On target 5.0 Shots 7.0 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours NK Uskok, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

NK Uskok HNK Gorica

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.0

NK Uskok has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

NK Uskok HNK Gorica

The combined recent performance profile favours NK Uskok.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

NK Uskok ↓ -3.30 (-29.2%)

HNK Gorica ↑ +0.08 (+6.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.