Gramadense vs Brasil de Farroupilha

16 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Gramadense

Brasil de Farroupilha

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.8% DRAW 31.2% AWAY 23.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.9% 2.20 DRAW 31.2% 3.02 AWAY 25.9% 3.65

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Gramadense relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 45.8% win probability, compared with 42.9% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Gramadense

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gramadense Brasil de Farroupilha

Shots 15.8 · On target 5.8 Shots 9.8 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Gramadense, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gramadense Brasil de Farroupilha

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gramadense Brasil de Farroupilha

The combined recent performance profile favours Gramadense.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Gramadense ↓ -0.34 (-13.4%)

Brasil de Farroupilha = (0.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.