Acambaro vs Dragones de Oaxaca

14 Sep 2026 · 00:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Acambaro

Dragones de Oaxaca

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.7% DRAW 26.9% AWAY 34.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.0% 2.50 DRAW 27.3% 3.30 AWAY 36.7% 2.45

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Acambaro relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 38.7% win probability, compared with 36.0% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Acambaro

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Acambaro Dragones de Oaxaca

Shots 15.5 · On target 8.0 Shots 11.5 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Acambaro, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Acambaro Dragones de Oaxaca

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Acambaro Dragones de Oaxaca

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Acambaro ↑ +0.25 (+11.4%)

Dragones de Oaxaca ↓ -0.35 (-12.5%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.