Luch Energiya vs Ural

10 Sep 2026 · 15:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Luch Energiya

Ural

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 25.4% DRAW 23.1% AWAY 51.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 24.3% 3.95 DRAW 23.6% 4.08 AWAY 52.1% 1.84

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Luch Energiya

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Luch Energiya Ural

Shots 10.0 · On target 4.5 Shots 5.8 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Luch Energiya, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Luch Energiya Ural

Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 0.8 · On target allowed 0.8

Ural has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Luch Energiya Ural

The combined recent performance profile favours Ural.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Luch Energiya ↓ -1.44 (-26.7%)

Ural ↑ +0.27 (+17.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.