Vaqueros Reynosa vs Mineros de Fresnillo

27 Sep 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Vaqueros Reynosa

Mineros de Fresnillo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.3% DRAW 27.2% AWAY 30.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.5% 2.13 DRAW 27.5% 3.30 AWAY 30.0% 3.02

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Mineros de Fresnillo

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Vaqueros Reynosa Mineros de Fresnillo

Shots 3.0 · On target 1.8 Shots 7.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Mineros de Fresnillo, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Vaqueros Reynosa Mineros de Fresnillo

Shots allowed 3.0 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 1.5

Vaqueros Reynosa has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Vaqueros Reynosa Mineros de Fresnillo

The combined recent performance profile favours Mineros de Fresnillo.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Vaqueros Reynosa ↓ -0.12 (-5.3%)

Mineros de Fresnillo ↑ +0.27 (+9.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.