CD Marathon vs Estrella Roja

06 Sep 2026 · 03:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

CD Marathon

Estrella Roja

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 61.5% DRAW 24.1% AWAY 14.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.7% 1.65 DRAW 24.4% 4.10 AWAY 14.8% 6.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

CD Marathon has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

CD Marathon Estrella Roja

Shots 13.3 · On target 5.5 Shots 12.8 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CD Marathon Estrella Roja

Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 4.0

CD Marathon has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CD Marathon Estrella Roja

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

CD Marathon ↑ +0.08 (+5.0%)

Estrella Roja ↑ +2.00 (+42.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.