Ipswich vs Arsenal

15 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.8 pp

Ipswich

Arsenal

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 10.3% DRAW 17.5% AWAY 72.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 11.7% 8.50 DRAW 18.9% 5.25 AWAY 69.4% 1.43

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Arsenal relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 72.2% win probability, compared with 69.4% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Arsenal

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ipswich Arsenal

Shots 12.8 · On target 6.3 Shots 15.0 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ipswich Arsenal

Shots allowed 19.0 · On target allowed 8.0 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 2.8

Arsenal has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ipswich Arsenal

The combined recent performance profile favours Arsenal.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Ipswich ↑ +0.50 (+6.3%)

Arsenal ↓ -0.05 (-3.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.