Millwall vs Newcastle

08 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.3 pp

Millwall

Newcastle

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 14.7% DRAW 19.7% AWAY 65.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 12.4% 8.04 DRAW 19.1% 5.21 AWAY 68.6% 1.45

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Newcastle

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Millwall Newcastle

Shots 10.3 · On target 3.0 Shots 11.5 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Millwall Newcastle

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 18.5 · On target allowed 5.3

Millwall has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Millwall Newcastle

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Millwall ↑ +2.52 (+45.7%)

Newcastle ↓ -0.20 (-12.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.