Coventry vs Aston Villa

16 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Coventry

Aston Villa

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.7% DRAW 24.8% AWAY 46.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 27.6% 3.50 DRAW 25.2% 3.84 AWAY 47.2% 2.05

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Aston Villa

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Coventry Aston Villa

Shots 12.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 12.3 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Coventry Aston Villa

Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Coventry Aston Villa

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Coventry ↑ +0.50 (+16.5%)

Aston Villa ↓ -0.29 (-12.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.