Fleetwood Town vs Sheff Utd

16 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

Fleetwood Town

Sheff Utd

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 22.8% DRAW 24.8% AWAY 52.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 19.4% 5.10 DRAW 24.1% 4.10 AWAY 56.5% 1.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Fleetwood Town relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 22.8% win probability, compared with 19.4% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Fleetwood Town has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Fleetwood Town Sheff Utd

Shots 13.5 · On target 3.5 Shots 10.0 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Fleetwood Town Sheff Utd

Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 17.3 · On target allowed 5.0

Fleetwood Town has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Fleetwood Town Sheff Utd

The combined recent performance profile favours Fleetwood Town.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Fleetwood Town ↓ -0.15 (-2.9%)

Sheff Utd ↑ +0.09 (+5.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.