Sunderland vs Hull

08 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Sunderland

Hull

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 57.9% DRAW 24.6% AWAY 17.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.0% 1.77 DRAW 25.5% 3.81 AWAY 19.5% 5.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Sunderland relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 57.9% win probability, compared with 55.0% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Sunderland has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sunderland Hull

Shots 12.0 · On target 4.5 Shots 10.0 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Sunderland, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sunderland Hull

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Sunderland has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sunderland Hull

The combined recent performance profile favours Sunderland.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Sunderland ↓ -0.06 (-3.4%)

Hull ↑ +0.11 (+2.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.