Crystal Palace vs Middlesbrough

08 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.9 pp

Crystal Palace

Middlesbrough

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.9% DRAW 27.1% AWAY 33.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.8% 2.23 DRAW 27.1% 3.60 AWAY 29.1% 3.35

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Middlesbrough relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 33.0% win probability, compared with 29.1% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Middlesbrough has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Crystal Palace Middlesbrough

Shots 7.5 · On target 2.5 Shots 16.0 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Middlesbrough, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Crystal Palace Middlesbrough

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Crystal Palace Middlesbrough

The combined recent performance profile favours Middlesbrough.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Crystal Palace ↑ +0.43 (+23.9%)

Middlesbrough ↓ -1.18 (-26.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.