CD Marathon vs Alajuelense

11 Sep 2026 · 03:05

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

CD Marathon

Alajuelense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.2% DRAW 30.4% AWAY 34.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.6% 2.83 DRAW 30.2% 3.15 AWAY 36.2% 2.63

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Alajuelense

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

CD Marathon Alajuelense

Shots 14.8 · On target 6.3 Shots 16.3 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CD Marathon Alajuelense

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 4.8

CD Marathon has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CD Marathon Alajuelense

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

CD Marathon ↓ -0.54 (-16.0%)

Alajuelense ↑ +0.28 (+11.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.