Alianza FC vs Motagua

17 Sep 2026 · 05:15

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.7 pp

Alianza FC

Motagua

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.8% DRAW 26.2% AWAY 47.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.8% 3.25 DRAW 26.8% 3.50 AWAY 44.4% 2.11

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Motagua relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 47.1% win probability, compared with 44.4% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Alianza FC

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Alianza FC Motagua

Shots 10.5 · On target 3.8 Shots 8.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Alianza FC Motagua

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 3.0 · On target allowed 1.0

Motagua has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Alianza FC Motagua

The combined recent performance profile favours Motagua.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Alianza FC ↑ +0.22 (+7.1%)

Motagua ↑ +0.01 (+0.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.