Motagua vs Alianza FC

10 Sep 2026 · 05:06

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.1 pp

Motagua

Alianza FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 61.4% DRAW 24.0% AWAY 14.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 61.2% 1.54 DRAW 24.1% 3.90 AWAY 14.7% 6.42

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Alianza FC

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Motagua Alianza FC

Shots 7.8 · On target 4.0 Shots 11.3 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Alianza FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Motagua Alianza FC

Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.8

Motagua has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Motagua Alianza FC

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Motagua ↓ -0.20 (-11.7%)

Alianza FC ↑ +1.94 (+43.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.