Dzerzhinsk vs FK Akron-M Tolyatti

20 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Dzerzhinsk

FK Akron-M Tolyatti

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 71.4% DRAW 19.4% AWAY 9.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 71.0% 1.27 DRAW 19.8% 4.55 AWAY 9.2% 9.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Dzerzhinsk

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Dzerzhinsk FK Akron-M Tolyatti

Shots 11.8 · On target 5.3 Shots 9.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Dzerzhinsk, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Dzerzhinsk FK Akron-M Tolyatti

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Dzerzhinsk FK Akron-M Tolyatti

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Dzerzhinsk ↓ -0.03 (-2.3%)

FK Akron-M Tolyatti ↑ +0.15 (+1.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.