Man Utd vs Brighton

16 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

Man Utd

Brighton

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.7% DRAW 20.1% AWAY 21.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.6% 1.72 DRAW 21.4% 4.55 AWAY 22.0% 4.42

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Man Utd has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Man Utd Brighton

Shots 21.0 · On target 7.0 Shots 19.5 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Man Utd Brighton

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.5

Man Utd has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Man Utd Brighton

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Man Utd ↓ -0.12 (-6.5%)

Brighton ↑ +0.48 (+12.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.