Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal

08 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Borussia Dortmund

Villarreal

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 57.1% DRAW 22.7% AWAY 20.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.1% 1.74 DRAW 23.4% 4.15 AWAY 20.5% 4.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Borussia Dortmund

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Borussia Dortmund Villarreal

Shots 16.3 · On target 6.5 Shots 15.0 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Borussia Dortmund Villarreal

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 3.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Borussia Dortmund Villarreal

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Borussia Dortmund ↓ -0.10 (-5.2%)

Villarreal ↑ +0.53 (+12.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.