Club Brugge vs Aston Villa

08 Sep 2026 · 18:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.0 pp

Club Brugge

Aston Villa

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.5% DRAW 26.0% AWAY 33.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.5% 2.73 DRAW 26.5% 3.66 AWAY 38.0% 2.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Club Brugge clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 40.5% win probability, compared with 35.5% implied by the market. The 5.0 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Club Brugge has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Club Brugge Aston Villa

Shots 15.0 · On target 5.0 Shots 8.0 · On target 1.0

Recent attacking output favours Club Brugge, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Club Brugge Aston Villa

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Club Brugge Aston Villa

The combined recent performance profile favours Club Brugge.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Club Brugge ↓ -0.09 (-3.1%)

Aston Villa ↑ +0.05 (+2.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.