Olympiacos vs Jagiellonia Bialystok

16 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.3 pp

Olympiacos

Jagiellonia Bialystok

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 79.4% DRAW 14.4% AWAY 6.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 75.2% 1.30 DRAW 16.7% 5.84 AWAY 8.1% 12.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Olympiacos clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 79.4% win probability, compared with 75.2% implied by the market. The 4.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Olympiacos has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Olympiacos Jagiellonia Bialystok

Shots 18.0 · On target 6.5 Shots 10.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Olympiacos, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Olympiacos Jagiellonia Bialystok

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 6.0

Olympiacos has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Olympiacos Jagiellonia Bialystok

The combined recent performance profile favours Olympiacos.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Olympiacos ↓ -0.10 (-7.1%)

Jagiellonia Bialystok ↑ +3.35 (+38.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.