Sunderland vs AZ

16 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

Sunderland

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 62.0% DRAW 21.6% AWAY 16.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 64.3% 1.50 DRAW 21.3% 4.52 AWAY 14.4% 6.71

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: AZ

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sunderland AZ

Shots 13.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 17.8 · On target 8.0

Recent attacking output favours AZ, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sunderland AZ

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sunderland AZ

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Sunderland ↓ -0.24 (-14.0%)

AZ ↑ +1.98 (+41.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.