Adelaide Croatia Raiders vs Adelaide Blue Eagles

05 Sep 2026 · 07:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.6 pp

Adelaide Croatia Raiders

Adelaide Blue Eagles

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.7% DRAW 20.9% AWAY 23.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.1% 1.85 DRAW 22.6% 4.10 AWAY 27.3% 3.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Adelaide Croatia Raiders clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.7% win probability, compared with 50.1% implied by the market. The 5.6 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Adelaide Croatia Raiders has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Adelaide Croatia Raiders Adelaide Blue Eagles

Shots 13.3 · On target 7.0 Shots 8.0 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Adelaide Croatia Raiders, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Adelaide Croatia Raiders Adelaide Blue Eagles

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 5.0

Adelaide Croatia Raiders has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Adelaide Croatia Raiders Adelaide Blue Eagles

The combined recent performance profile favours Adelaide Croatia Raiders.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Adelaide Croatia Raiders ↑ +0.05 (+3.0%)

Adelaide Blue Eagles ↑ +0.15 (+4.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.