Bayer Leverkusen vs NK Celje

16 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Bayer Leverkusen

NK Celje

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 93.0% DRAW 5.0% AWAY 2.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 92.0% 1.06 DRAW 5.9% 16.50 AWAY 2.1% 46.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Bayer Leverkusen has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bayer Leverkusen NK Celje

Shots 20.5 · On target 6.8 Shots 14.5 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Bayer Leverkusen, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bayer Leverkusen NK Celje

Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bayer Leverkusen NK Celje

The combined recent performance profile favours Bayer Leverkusen.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Bayer Leverkusen ↓ -0.14 (-11.3%)

NK Celje ↑ +30.50 (+196.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.