AC Milan vs Benfica

16 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.5 pp

AC Milan

Benfica

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.5% DRAW 26.7% AWAY 33.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.9% 2.34 DRAW 26.8% 3.84 AWAY 29.3% 3.51

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Benfica clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 33.8% win probability, compared with 29.3% implied by the market. The 4.5 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Benfica has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

AC Milan Benfica

Shots 13.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 20.0 · On target 7.0

Recent attacking output favours Benfica, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

AC Milan Benfica

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 1.3

Benfica has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

AC Milan Benfica

The combined recent performance profile favours Benfica.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

AC Milan ↑ +0.19 (+8.8%)

Benfica ↑ +0.02 (+0.6%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.