Sturt Lions Reserves vs Metrostars Reserves

05 Sep 2026 · 09:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.5 pp

Sturt Lions Reserves

Metrostars Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 18.1% DRAW 21.1% AWAY 60.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 19.6% 5.12 DRAW 22.2% 4.50 AWAY 58.2% 1.72

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Metrostars Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 60.7% win probability, compared with 58.2% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Metrostars Reserves

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sturt Lions Reserves Metrostars Reserves

Shots 11.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 10.8 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sturt Lions Reserves Metrostars Reserves

Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 7.3 Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 3.5

Metrostars Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sturt Lions Reserves Metrostars Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Metrostars Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Sturt Lions Reserves ↑ +0.79 (+18.2%)

Metrostars Reserves ↑ +0.22 (+14.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.