Caboolture FC (W) vs Mitchelton FC (W)

05 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Caboolture FC (W)

Mitchelton FC (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.2% DRAW 18.8% AWAY 15.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 62.5% 1.61 DRAW 20.5% 4.92 AWAY 17.1% 5.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Caboolture FC (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 66.2% win probability, compared with 62.5% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Caboolture FC (W)

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Caboolture FC (W) Mitchelton FC (W)

Shots 15.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 12.5 · On target 8.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Caboolture FC (W) Mitchelton FC (W)

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 19.3 · On target allowed 8.5

Caboolture FC (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Caboolture FC (W) Mitchelton FC (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Caboolture FC (W) ↑ +0.21 (+15.0%)

Mitchelton FC (W) ↑ +0.40 (+7.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.