Newmarket vs AC Carina

05 Sep 2026 · 05:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

Newmarket

AC Carina

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.6% DRAW 18.8% AWAY 22.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.8% 1.67 DRAW 20.3% 4.60 AWAY 23.9% 3.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Newmarket relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 58.6% win probability, compared with 55.8% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Newmarket

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Newmarket AC Carina

Shots 16.8 · On target 8.5 Shots 12.3 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Newmarket, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Newmarket AC Carina

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Newmarket AC Carina

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Newmarket ↓ -0.13 (-7.2%)

AC Carina ↑ +0.80 (+25.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.