Avondale vs Preston Lions

05 Sep 2026 · 06:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Avondale

Preston Lions

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.3% DRAW 25.9% AWAY 31.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.2% 2.45 DRAW 26.5% 3.62 AWAY 34.3% 2.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Avondale relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 42.3% win probability, compared with 39.2% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Avondale has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Avondale Preston Lions

Shots 10.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 8.3 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Avondale, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Avondale Preston Lions

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.0

Avondale has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Avondale Preston Lions

The combined recent performance profile favours Avondale.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Avondale ↑ +0.54 (+28.3%)

Preston Lions ↓ -0.40 (-12.5%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.