Peninsula Power vs Moreton City Excelsior

05 Sep 2026 · 09:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.7 pp

Peninsula Power

Moreton City Excelsior

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.4% DRAW 24.0% AWAY 34.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.4% 2.15 DRAW 24.6% 3.80 AWAY 32.0% 2.92

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Moreton City Excelsior relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 34.6% win probability, compared with 32.0% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Moreton City Excelsior has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Peninsula Power Moreton City Excelsior

Shots 11.5 · On target 4.8 Shots 13.0 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output favours Moreton City Excelsior, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Peninsula Power Moreton City Excelsior

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.0

Moreton City Excelsior has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Peninsula Power Moreton City Excelsior

The combined recent performance profile favours Moreton City Excelsior.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Peninsula Power ↓ -0.15 (-6.5%)

Moreton City Excelsior ↑ +0.52 (+21.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.