Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid

13 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Real Sociedad

Atletico Madrid

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.9% DRAW 26.7% AWAY 44.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 27.7% 3.54 DRAW 26.8% 3.65 AWAY 45.5% 2.15

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Real Sociedad

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Real Sociedad Atletico Madrid

Shots 14.0 · On target 6.0 Shots 13.8 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Real Sociedad Atletico Madrid

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 5.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Real Sociedad Atletico Madrid

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Real Sociedad ↑ +0.54 (+18.0%)

Atletico Madrid ↓ -0.27 (-11.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.