Al Jolan SC vs Newroz SC

14 Sep 2026 · 17:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.9 pp

Al Jolan SC

Newroz SC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.4% DRAW 30.2% AWAY 41.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.3% 3.00 DRAW 30.3% 3.10 AWAY 38.5% 2.44

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Newroz SC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 41.4% win probability, compared with 38.5% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Newroz SC has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Al Jolan SC Newroz SC

Shots 10.5 · On target 5.3 Shots 15.0 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Newroz SC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Al Jolan SC Newroz SC

Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.5

Newroz SC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Al Jolan SC Newroz SC

The combined recent performance profile favours Newroz SC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Al Jolan SC = (0.0%)

Newroz SC ↑ +0.24 (+10.9%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.