Erbil SC vs Al Karma

14 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Erbil SC

Al Karma

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.1% DRAW 33.9% AWAY 31.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.8% 2.86 DRAW 33.2% 3.00 AWAY 32.0% 3.11

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Al Karma

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Erbil SC Al Karma

Shots 7.3 · On target 3.3 Shots 10.3 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Al Karma, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Erbil SC Al Karma

Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.0

Erbil SC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Erbil SC Al Karma

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Erbil SC ↑ +0.46 (+19.2%)

Al Karma ↑ +0.36 (+13.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.