Al Talaba vs Al Karkh

09 Sep 2026 · 17:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Al Talaba

Al Karkh

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.8% DRAW 31.2% AWAY 20.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 48.2% 1.95 DRAW 30.8% 3.05 AWAY 20.9% 4.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Al Talaba

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Al Talaba Al Karkh

Shots 10.5 · On target 6.0 Shots 8.5 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Al Talaba, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Al Talaba Al Karkh

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Al Talaba Al Karkh

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Al Talaba ↑ +0.05 (+2.6%)

Al Karkh ↑ +0.40 (+9.8%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.