Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Zawra'a

10 Sep 2026 · 19:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Al Zawra'a

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 30.9% DRAW 33.4% AWAY 35.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.9% 2.90 DRAW 32.8% 3.00 AWAY 33.3% 2.95

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Al Zawra'a has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Al Quwa Al Jawiya Al Zawra'a

Shots 9.3 · On target 2.8 Shots 10.3 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Al Zawra'a, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Al Quwa Al Jawiya Al Zawra'a

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 1.3

Al Zawra'a has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Al Quwa Al Jawiya Al Zawra'a

The combined recent performance profile favours Al Zawra'a.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Al Quwa Al Jawiya ↑ +0.50 (+20.8%)

Al Zawra'a ↑ +0.20 (+7.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.