Erbil SC vs Diyala FC

08 Sep 2026 · 17:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Erbil SC

Diyala FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 62.9% DRAW 23.5% AWAY 13.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 61.6% 1.48 DRAW 24.1% 3.78 AWAY 14.3% 6.36

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Erbil SC

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Erbil SC Diyala FC

Shots 8.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 10.5 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Erbil SC Diyala FC

Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.5

Erbil SC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Erbil SC Diyala FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Erbil SC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Erbil SC = (0.0%)

Diyala FC ↑ +0.36 (+6.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.