CA Guemes vs Gimnasia y Tiro

06 Sep 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

CA Guemes

Gimnasia y Tiro

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.4% DRAW 33.9% AWAY 31.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.7% 2.74 DRAW 33.1% 2.95 AWAY 31.2% 3.13

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Gimnasia y Tiro

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

CA Guemes Gimnasia y Tiro

Shots 6.5 · On target 1.8 Shots 9.3 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Gimnasia y Tiro, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CA Guemes Gimnasia y Tiro

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CA Guemes Gimnasia y Tiro

The combined recent performance profile favours Gimnasia y Tiro.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

CA Guemes ↓ -0.56 (-17.0%)

Gimnasia y Tiro ↑ +0.48 (+18.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.