Bulleen Lions (W) vs South Melbourne (W)

05 Sep 2026 · 08:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

Bulleen Lions (W)

South Melbourne (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.7% DRAW 27.1% AWAY 34.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.1% 2.35 DRAW 27.3% 3.45 AWAY 32.5% 2.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

South Melbourne (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bulleen Lions (W) South Melbourne (W)

Shots 9.8 · On target 2.8 Shots 10.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bulleen Lions (W) South Melbourne (W)

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 3.0

South Melbourne (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bulleen Lions (W) South Melbourne (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours South Melbourne (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Bulleen Lions (W) ↑ +0.35 (+17.5%)

South Melbourne (W) ↓ -0.10 (-3.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.