Lions FC (W) vs Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)

04 Sep 2026 · 10:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Lions FC (W)

Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.0% DRAW 26.0% AWAY 37.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.8% 2.58 DRAW 26.4% 3.50 AWAY 37.7% 2.45

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lions FC (W) Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)

Shots 20.8 · On target 10.3 Shots 18.3 · On target 11.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lions FC (W) Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lions FC (W) Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Lions FC (W) ↓ -0.42 (-14.0%)

Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) ↑ +0.15 (+6.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.