University NSW (W) vs APIA Leichardt (W)

05 Sep 2026 · 09:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

University NSW (W)

APIA Leichardt (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.5% DRAW 25.8% AWAY 38.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.3% 2.83 DRAW 26.2% 3.60 AWAY 40.5% 2.33

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: APIA Leichardt (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

University NSW (W) APIA Leichardt (W)

Shots 9.3 · On target 5.0 Shots 14.8 · On target 7.0

Recent attacking output favours APIA Leichardt (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

University NSW (W) APIA Leichardt (W)

Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 5.8

University NSW (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

University NSW (W) APIA Leichardt (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours University NSW (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

University NSW (W) ↑ +0.42 (+17.4%)

APIA Leichardt (W) ↓ -0.09 (-3.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.