Parramatta Eagles vs Prospect United

04 Sep 2026 · 10:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.6 pp

Parramatta Eagles

Prospect United

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.5% DRAW 25.2% AWAY 35.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.9% 2.51 DRAW 25.7% 3.50 AWAY 38.3% 2.35

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Parramatta Eagles relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 39.5% win probability, compared with 35.9% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Parramatta Eagles has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Parramatta Eagles Prospect United

Shots 11.8 · On target 7.5 Shots 11.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Parramatta Eagles, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Parramatta Eagles Prospect United

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 5.3

Parramatta Eagles has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Parramatta Eagles Prospect United

The combined recent performance profile favours Parramatta Eagles.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Parramatta Eagles ↓ -0.09 (-3.5%)

Prospect United ↑ +0.10 (+4.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.