Sporting vs Nacional

05 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

Sporting

Nacional

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 86.4% DRAW 8.6% AWAY 5.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 84.5% 1.16 DRAW 10.0% 9.85 AWAY 5.5% 17.84

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Sporting has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sporting Nacional

Shots 12.5 · On target 6.3 Shots 11.8 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Sporting, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sporting Nacional

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 3.8

Sporting has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sporting Nacional

The combined recent performance profile favours Sporting.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Sporting ↓ -0.02 (-1.8%)

Nacional ↑ +4.84 (+37.2%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.