Safa Baku vs Sabah

14 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.1 pp

Safa Baku

Sabah

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 9.0% DRAW 16.4% AWAY 74.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 10.6% 9.00 DRAW 18.0% 5.30 AWAY 71.4% 1.34

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Sabah relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 74.5% win probability, compared with 71.4% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Sabah has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Safa Baku Sabah

Shots 6.3 · On target 3.0 Shots 17.8 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output favours Sabah, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Safa Baku Sabah

Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 7.0 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.8

Sabah has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Safa Baku Sabah

The combined recent performance profile favours Sabah.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Safa Baku ↑ +3.85 (+64.2%)

Sabah ↓ -0.08 (-5.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.