Flamengo vs Corinthians

13 Sep 2026 · 22:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.2 pp

Flamengo

Corinthians

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 75.9% DRAW 16.4% AWAY 7.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 75.7% 1.28 DRAW 16.7% 5.79 AWAY 7.5% 12.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Flamengo

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Flamengo Corinthians

Shots 14.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 13.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Flamengo Corinthians

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Flamengo Corinthians

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Flamengo ↓ -0.19 (-13.0%)

Corinthians ↑ +4.90 (+61.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.