FK Kapaz vs FK Sumqayit

20 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

FK Kapaz

FK Sumqayit

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.5% DRAW 29.9% AWAY 35.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.4% 2.70 DRAW 29.8% 3.21 AWAY 34.8% 2.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: FK Sumqayit

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

FK Kapaz FK Sumqayit

Shots 5.3 · On target 1.8 Shots 8.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours FK Sumqayit, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FK Kapaz FK Sumqayit

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FK Kapaz FK Sumqayit

The combined recent performance profile favours FK Sumqayit.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

FK Kapaz ↑ +0.60 (+28.6%)

FK Sumqayit ↓ -0.55 (-16.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.