Mirassol vs Vitoria

13 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

Mirassol

Vitoria

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.4% DRAW 26.9% AWAY 23.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.3% 1.90 DRAW 26.7% 3.65 AWAY 22.0% 4.43

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Vitoria has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Mirassol Vitoria

Shots 10.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 14.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Mirassol Vitoria

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Mirassol Vitoria

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Mirassol ↑ +0.08 (+4.4%)

Vitoria ↓ -0.33 (-6.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.