Estrela de Marco U20 vs Fortaleza U20

12 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.8 pp

Estrela de Marco U20

Fortaleza U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 15.4% DRAW 19.2% AWAY 65.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 16.9% 5.50 DRAW 20.5% 4.55 AWAY 62.6% 1.49

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Fortaleza U20 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 65.4% win probability, compared with 62.6% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Fortaleza U20

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Estrela de Marco U20 Fortaleza U20

Shots 11.0 · On target 3.8 Shots 15.3 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Estrela de Marco U20 Fortaleza U20

Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 2.0

Fortaleza U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Estrela de Marco U20 Fortaleza U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Fortaleza U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Estrela de Marco U20 = (0.0%)

Fortaleza U20 ↓ -0.05 (-3.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.