Excursionistas vs CA Ituzaingo

08 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Excursionistas

CA Ituzaingo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 68.6% DRAW 21.9% AWAY 9.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 67.5% 1.46 DRAW 22.4% 4.40 AWAY 10.2% 9.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Excursionistas has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Excursionistas CA Ituzaingo

Shots 12.5 · On target 5.3 Shots 11.3 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Excursionistas CA Ituzaingo

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 5.0

Excursionistas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Excursionistas CA Ituzaingo

The combined recent performance profile favours Excursionistas.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Excursionistas ↓ -0.04 (-2.7%)

CA Ituzaingo ↑ +2.20 (+24.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.