Bahia U20 vs Nautico Capibaribe U20

12 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

Bahia U20

Nautico Capibaribe U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 69.4% DRAW 18.8% AWAY 11.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 66.1% 1.42 DRAW 20.4% 4.60 AWAY 13.5% 6.93

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Bahia U20 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 69.4% win probability, compared with 66.1% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Bahia U20 has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bahia U20 Nautico Capibaribe U20

Shots 16.8 · On target 7.5 Shots 14.3 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bahia U20 Nautico Capibaribe U20

Shots allowed 3.3 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Bahia U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bahia U20 Nautico Capibaribe U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Bahia U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Bahia U20 = (0.0%)

Nautico Capibaribe U20 ↓ -0.11 (-1.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.