APAFUT vs EC Pelotas

16 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

APAFUT

EC Pelotas

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.2% DRAW 31.3% AWAY 28.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.8% 2.40 DRAW 31.1% 3.00 AWAY 30.1% 3.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: APAFUT

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

APAFUT EC Pelotas

Shots 13.5 · On target 6.8 Shots 12.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours APAFUT, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

APAFUT EC Pelotas

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

APAFUT EC Pelotas

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

APAFUT ↓ -0.15 (-5.9%)

EC Pelotas ↑ +0.48 (+18.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.